Does the NFL Use Hypothesis Driven Testing?

While entrepreneurs look to the conversion funnel for the lifetime value of consumers, it is not unlikely to think that the NFL does the same. Local NFL teams do this all the time: they find a way to change people to fans, and fans into super fans. With each effort, the team is drawing a stronger connection and increasing the lifetime value of a consumer. Just look at the obituary section of most newspapers and you will find at least one person highlights their fandom of an NFL team. This unfortunately morbid anecdote provides some insight into how the NFL can create a passionate fan base.

As Thomas Eisenmann, Eric Ries, and Sarah Dillard highlight in their article Hypothesis Driven Entrepreneurship: The Lean Startup companies must test and then invest. This is no different for every local NFL team. Each team comes to the draft hoping to find their next franchise player that can lead them to a Super Bowl, but, in reality, most teams settle for good players. Instead of just ending the testing there, the teams continue to measure how individuals players should be marketed. They track jersey sales or appearance to team-sponsored events, and they gauge the fan feedback on individual players. All of this leads teams to identify their superstars: the best player(s) on or off the field.

For instance, Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys has been a good tight-end. He is not necessarily an NFL superstar in terms of his game performance, however, his off-the-field activities have made him a Cowboys franchise player. He started his own Jason Witten SCORE foundation, which has donated to fans across Texas as well as his home state of Tennessee. These activities make his jersey one of the highest selling jerseys for the Cowboys. Similarly, Devon Still of the Cincinnati Bengals is an average on-the-field player but he has a powerful off-the-field story. This year Devon's daughter was diagnosed with Neuroblastoma stage 4 cancer, in response Devon shaved his head and has refused to grow his hair back or play in the NFL until she is out of the hospital. The Bengals organization understood the impact that Still had on his community and organization and instead of penalizing Still, they rewarded his unselfish actions by continue to pay a portion of his contract, as well as offer his jersey to the public. They also stated that for ever Devon Still jersey sold, they would donate the proceeds to pediatric cancer research: in one month, over $1 million dollars worth of Still's jerseys were sold. In fact, his jersey was the 9th leading jersey this year despite the fact he hasn't touched a football once for the Bengals.

By tracking the trends of the consumers, the NFL gains a greater understanding into how each team or player could and should be marketed to the fans. Throughout this entire marketing process and story telling, the NFL can track the Eisenmann, Ries, and Dillard's conversion funnel to measure how people go from an outsider, to a fan, and ultimately someone who writes they were a fan in their obituary.